The Long Ascent: India Poised to Overtake China’s Share of Global GDP by 2060

A fresh analysis by the World Inequality Lab projects a shifting economic landscape where India’s demographic advantage and China’s shrinking workforce redefine the world order.

The global economic centre of gravity is set for a historic pivot over the coming decades. According to the "Global Justice Report" published by the Paris School of Economics-based World Inequality Lab (WIL), India is on track to surpass China in its share of global GDP by the year 2060. While China has enjoyed a rapid rise to become a dominant economic force, currently accounting for approximately 20 per cent of world GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, researchers suggest that its trajectory will stabilize and eventually decline during the latter half of the 21st century.

The Demographic Pivot

The core of this projection lies in stark demographic shifts. China, once the world’s most populous nation, is grappling with a rapidly aging society. From holding 23 per cent of the global population in 1945, China’s share is expected to fall to 17 per cent by 2025, plummeting to less than 8 per cent by the year 2100. In contrast, India’s sustained demographic growth provides it with a long-term engine that China no longer possesses.

The report highlights that unlike the hegemonic dominance seen by Europe in the early 20th century or the United States around 1950—where single nations commanded up to 45 per cent of global GDP—the future world will be markedly multipolar. No single country is expected to reach those historic peaks of concentration, suggesting a more fragmented, albeit competitive, global economic environment.

Productivity and Structural Challenges

While the growth trajectory favors India, the report offers a candid assessment of the hurdles ahead. It notes that India currently grapples with higher levels of internal inequality and lower productivity growth compared to its neighbor. Analysts point out that China’s ability to sustain high productivity has been bolstered by significant, better-targeted human capital expenditure. For India to realize this long-term forecast, bridging the gap in workforce skills and infrastructure will remain as critical as raw population numbers.

The Near-Term Economic Landscape

The economic outlook for the next few years provides a snapshot of this ongoing transition. Projections from the latest World Economic Outlook suggest a tightening race among major economies. By 2026, India’s GDP is forecast to reach approximately USD 4.15 trillion, narrowing the gap with the United Kingdom, which is expected to hit USD 4.27 trillion. Meanwhile, the United States remains the clear leader with a projected 2026 GDP of USD 32.38 trillion.

As India navigates its path toward becoming a premier global economy by the century’s end, the government continues to focus on diverse industrial policies—from boosting energy security through flex-fuel initiatives to fostering trade agreements. These strategic moves are viewed as essential building blocks for maintaining momentum in a global market that remains, as the report puts it, "delicate" and highly sensitive to shifting production capacities.