Crude realities: Why India’s reliance on Russian oil is hitting record highs

As the US-Iran conflict disrupts traditional supply routes, India’s strategic pivot towards Moscow for energy security has reached a new, unprecedented peak.

The Strait of Hormuz, often described as the world’s most vital oil chokepoint, has become a high-risk zone for global energy markets. For Indian refiners, the volatility triggered by the ongoing US-Iran standoff has forced a pragmatic, if stark, recalibration of import strategies. Latest data from Kpler confirms that India’s appetite for Russian crude shows no signs of waning; in fact, imports are projected to reach an all-time high of 2.35 million barrels per day this June.

A shift in the energy map

The numbers tell a story of rapid adaptation. Before the current geopolitical flare-up, Indian refiners had briefly tempered their dependence on Moscow following sanctions on major Russian firms like Rosneft and Lukoil. However, the disruption of Middle Eastern supply chains changed the calculus overnight. With freight risks climbing and Gulf availability tightening, New Delhi turned back to Russia with renewed intensity. The data is telling: since the start of the US-Iran conflict, India has procured over 270 million barrels of crude from Russia—a figure nearly five times larger than its imports from Saudi Arabia during the same period.

According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager for Modelling and Refining at Kpler, the sheer economics of the trade keep the taps open. "India's imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand," Ritolia notes. Even with the US-Iran situation creating a landscape of uncertainty, Russian barrels continue to offer a competitive edge against global benchmarks, acting as the primary backbone for India’s energy slate.

Why it matters

This trend is about more than just filling storage tanks; it is a calculated hedge against global instability. By aggressively diversifying toward Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan sources while maintaining a heavy tilt toward Russian supply, India is effectively insulating its domestic economy from the immediate price shocks of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

The bigger picture suggests that this reliance is unlikely to disappear even if the current US sanctions waiver is eventually revoked. Indian refiners have built a complex, multi-source pipeline that prioritizes supply security and cost-efficiency above all else. While the Trump administration’s quiet management of the waiver provided the necessary breathing room, the structural shift in India’s import basket is clearly here to stay. As long as global oil prices remain volatile and regional conflicts threaten maritime routes, the Russian connection will remain the linchpin of India's energy security.