How Trump looms large over Brazil's high-stakes presidential election

As Brazil heads toward a tight October vote, the shadow of the U.S. president is dictating the rhythm of a campaign caught between shifting diplomatic ties and domestic security fears.

The air in Brasilia is thick with the weight of Washington’s gaze. As Brazil approaches a pivotal presidential election in October, the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump has become the most unpredictable variable on the ballot. Whether through threatened trade tariffs or high-profile meetings at the White House, the American president is effectively acting as an unofficial participant in the race, placing current leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro—son of the former far-right president—in a delicate dance for external validation.

The 'Trump Card' in a Tight Race

For the right-wing camp, aligning with the U.S. administration is seen as the ultimate campaign asset. The stakes were laid bare when Trump moved to designate two of Brazil’s most notorious criminal syndicates, the Red Command (CV) and the First Capital Command (PCC), as terrorist organizations. Flavio Bolsonaro was quick to frame this as a personal diplomatic victory, arguing that his pre-candidate outreach to the U.S. has delivered more tangible security benefits for Brazilians than years of Workers' Party governance.

Pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers are already wielding this move as a wedge issue, suggesting it exposes a soft spot in Lula’s security policy. However, the strategy carries risks. While the move resonates with working-class voters weary of rising violence, strategists in the Bolsonaro camp acknowledge that Trump’s polarizing brand is a double-edged sword. "He has a positive side that benefits us, but also a high disapproval rating," noted lawmaker Sostenes Cavalcante, reflecting the caution required when hitching a domestic wagon to a volatile foreign power.

A Complicated Diplomatic Tug-of-War

The narrative of a simple partisan alliance is complicated by the Trump administration’s own inconsistent signals. While Trump has lauded Flavio Bolsonaro as a "smart young man," he has simultaneously maintained an "excellent chemistry" with Lula. The incumbent president, who has previously criticized Trump’s "emperor-like" tendencies, has nonetheless worked to keep communication lines open, even as he faces pressure from potential tariff hikes on Brazilian exports.

This ambiguity serves as a reminder of Trump’s long-standing track record of interventionism in Latin American politics. From supporting Javier Milei in Argentina to backing various hopefuls in Colombia and Honduras, the U.S. president is clearly signaling a preference for a regional order that aligns with his "America First" agenda.

Why it matters

The larger pattern here is the erosion of traditional diplomatic distance. In today’s global climate, local elections are increasingly being treated as proxies for broader ideological battles, with U.S. backing serving as a decisive factor in local voting preferences. For Brazil, this means the outcome of the October election will not just be decided by domestic economic concerns or crime rates, but by the ability of the candidates to navigate a relationship with an unpredictable Washington. If Trump continues to use trade policies—like the recent investigations into deforestation—as leverage, the next Brazilian government will be forced to either pivot toward a more submissive stance or risk economic isolation in a volatile global market.